Scientists fear global ‘cascade’ of climate impacts by 2030

气候危害像极端热量，干旱和风暴一样，可能会引发未来十年内在世界范围内感受到的“级联影响”。

Increasingly frequent extreme weather events could lead to more18beplay , displacement of people, and conflict within易受伤害的countries by 2030, with knock-on effects for whole regions and the global economy, according to the report by UK-based policy institute Chatham House.

The ten “hazard-impact pathways” of greatest near-term concern all relate to Africa or Asia, the report says, referring to the chain of impacts triggered by climate-related events.

“If we don’t act in the 2020s to help vulnerable countries cope with the climate change that is already happening, and will continue to happen, then we’re going to incur wildly spiralling costs in terms of dealing with those disasters in the near future.”

Ruth Townend, research fellow, Chatham House

However, the repercussions of these hazards may be far-reaching, it suggests.

The research drew on the views of more than 200 climate scientists and other specialists to assess which immediate climate hazards and impacts should most concern decision-makers in the coming decade.

“One of the really concerning things that the research highlighted was that [climate change] impacts aren’t confined to the vulnerable place where they happen,” said Ruth Townend, a research fellow with the environment and society programme at Chatham House and co-author of the report,什么近期气候影响最大，最让我们担心？

“但是，发生的地方的脆弱性意味着影响比原本可能更大。

“They then cascade and have knock-on impacts and sort of chain reactions … that are global in their nature, or at least cover large regions.”

Adaptation finance

研究人员说，这一发现是在格拉斯哥的COP26之前发布的（11月31日），表明，在最高危的地区为气候适应提供资金符合富裕国家的利益，在这些地区迫切需要采取行动来解决社会经济脆弱性。气候影响。

到目前为止，富裕国家未能在2009年在哥本哈根举行的气候金融筹集至少1亿美元的气候财务上，以支持发展中国家应对气候变化方面的承诺。

“随着COP26的出现，所有人的目光都集中在……可以实现的目标，尤其是在减少排放方面，但是报告的主要发现是……在近期最重要的事情之一中，适应。”汤恩德说。

“If we don’t act in the 2020s to help vulnerable countries cope with the climate change that is already happening, and will continue to happen, then we’re going to incur wildly spiralling costs in terms of dealing with those disasters in the near future.”

Concerns highlighted by the climate scientists and other specialists included heightened food insecurity in South and South-East Asia, and Australasia, as well as reduced food security globally arising from multiple climate hazards leading to “breadbasket failures”.

汤恩德说：“您拥有这些关键的面包板区域，它们将谷物出口到其他地区，它们在稳定粮食供应方面起着非常重要的作用。”“So, if your harvest fails, you’re able to buy in grain from outside and that means people don’t go hungry and the impacts are confined, but … if those breadbasket regions get hit, that safety net is taken away from the whole region and that can increase global food prices.”

损失和损害

查塔姆之家（Chatham House）的高级研究员丹尼尔·奎金（Daniel Quiggin），报告的首席作者说：“农业部门缺乏韧性，以及发展中国家的广泛贫困和不平等，最著名的是在非洲，将加剧气候变化的影响并在边界驱动级联效应。

“Without more aid for adaptation and poverty reduction, food insecurity due to extreme heat, drought, storm damage and multiple crop failures could result in political instability and conflict and drive increased migration to Southern Europe.”

The paper calls for the development of a comprehensive climate risk register that charts the communities most vulnerable to climate hazards, the potential cascading risks, and what can be done to increase resilience.

“The key thing that we’re saying in this report is that by addressing those issues of vulnerability, we can actually prevent really appalling climate disasters from occurring in this decade,” added Townend.

国际环境与发展研究所的气候治理和金融研究员Ritu Bharadwaj表示，气候“损失和损害”金融将是COP26上要解决的关键问题之一。beplay足球体育的微博“这正在发生，世界各地脆弱的国家和社区正在丧命，生计，房屋 - 他们正在流离失所。”告诉A。scidev.net辩论上周，补充说：“随着气候变化的影响恶化，这些问题只会升级。”

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