07/07/20

Planning for the next pandemic: facts and figures

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来自开发计划署孟加拉国的社区主持人提出了通知,提高了人们对洗手的意识,并在达卡巴萨博的马达塔克(Madartek)的冠状病毒中保持清洁。版权:联合国亚洲妇女和太平洋,,,,(CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Speed read

  • Drug resistance exacerbating the risk of disease outbreaks
  • 埃博拉和寨卡开始了高影响力的新时代,难以管理流行病
  • 肥胖和生活方式疾病可能是下一个全球问题

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流感,冠状病毒,肥胖症:世界是否为下一个大流行准备好了吗?

Mere months before COVID-19 hit, an international group of scientists warned that the world faced the “very real threat” of a pandemic from a respiratory pathogen causing 50 to 80 million deaths.

“这个规模上的全球大流行将是灾难性的……世界没有准备好”报告说by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), a body co-convened by the World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO).

Though deaths from COVID-19 are currently a long way off those numbers — just more than 550,000, as of July — it provides a stark warning for the future in our increasingly connected societies. Factors including increased travel and rapid population growth in places with weak health systems are contributing to the rising risk.

随着世界卫生组织在2011年至2018年之间的172个国家追踪近1500个流行病事件,GPMB表示,流感,严重急性呼吸综合症(SARS),中东呼吸综合症(MERS),埃博拉病毒,埃博拉病毒,埃博拉病毒,埃博拉和Zika等疾病是一种新的“危险”高影响力,更困难的爆发时代。

多样性和数量的传染病暴发都在增加到2010年,1980年不到1000到3000。In the past decade, aside from COVID-19, the WHO has designated five other disease outbreaks as a “public health emergency of international concern” — Ebola twice, swine flu, poliovirus and Zika.

GPMB表示,毫不奇怪,疾病爆发威胁到对资源较低的社区的影响较大,而获得基本健康服务,清洁水和卫生设施以及贫困的基础设施和治理的影响有限。

Meanwhile, an Epidemic Preparedness Index cited in astudy inBMJ Global Health去年发现,制备最少的国家集中在中部和西非和南亚 - 传染病的发作与检测和缓解能力之间存在“潜在危险的不匹配”。

Zoonoses and the resistance crisis

科学家担心,城市的生长和人类对生态系统的干扰会增加传染病和人畜共患病的发生率,即那些越过动物与人之间界限的疾病。

预计到2050年,预计将有25亿人进入城市,亚洲和非洲的增长占90%,而贫民窟的居民数量达到了。2018年全球超过十亿

根据世界广泛的自然基金,每年都会出现三到四种新的人畜共患疾病,问题可能会恶化野肉as both a necessity and delicacy.

世界自然基金会指出,蝙蝠和黑猩猩的狩猎和屠杀被认为是2014年埃博拉疫情的潜在来源。

Frequency of zoonotic disease outbreaks“ fileId =” e363c259-2aba-413b-bf8c3e5203e8035e“高度=“ 567” width =“ 996” data-src =“ https://505488.smmushcdn.com/22429955/wp-contentsets/glob_pload/gploads/gploads/glob/gploads/glob/gloads//july/pandemics_spotlights/fnf_2.jpg?lossy=1&strip=1&webp=1
The frequency of zoonotic disease outbreaks and the diversity of pathogens have increased dramatically in the past century.

Exacerbating the threat of outbreaks is the growing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) crisis, making diseases harder to treat. This is compounded by a worrying shortfall in research and development to confront the crisis, according to报告。未来几年,预计有90%的未来AMR相关死亡将在非洲和亚洲发生,而联合国预测,如果找不到有效的解决方案,则全球死亡人数可能从现在的每年70万至1000万。

On the other hand, the WHO has just reported a significant step forward: a huge surge in the number of countries nowmonitoring and reporting on AMR。Its surveillance system aggregates data from 64,000 sites worldwide, up from 729 in two years.

经济影响

The COVID-19 outbreak has underlined that the direct effects of epidemics on health are far from the only issue, as the pandemic has hit economies hard and pushed people towards poverty.

联合国秘书长关于可持续发展目标的进步的最新报告说:“大流行正在扭转减少贫困的趋势。”估计有40至6000万人将是pushed back into extreme poverty今年,二十年来全球贫困的首次增加。

一个较早的联合国报告predicted that 56 per cent of those slipping into extreme poverty in 2020 would be in Africa, while the UN’s World Food Programme estimates that 130 million more people in low- and middle-income countries may be confronted with acute food insecurity this year.

Other crises have also borne out the costs: West Africa’s Ebola outbreak is estimated to have caused losses of US$2.2 billion in gross domestic product in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in 2015. According to the GPMB, the 20 per cent fall in Sierra Leone was enough to wipe out five years of development.

西非的埃博拉经济损失
Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone lost an estimated US$ 2.2 billion in GDP in 2015, during the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak.
Credit:改编自GPMB

营养问题

而且,由于生活方式和城市化的变化,世界不仅面临着传染病的风险,而且还面临着非传染病的风险。

The incidence of肥胖在全球占两倍自1975年以来,根据世卫组织(WHO)的说法,并且一直处于以前率低的地区的向上轨迹。在非洲,据估计,自2000年以来,五岁以下的超重儿童人数估计增长了24%,而这些年龄段的超重或肥胖儿童的数量在2019年居住在亚洲。

此外,低收入国家越来越多地看到同一社区,同一家庭,甚至在某些人中,他们可能既发育迟缓又超重的人的营养不良和肥胖。最近的报告柳叶刀估计这一点more than one third低收入和中等收入的国家中,有这些重叠的影响,这是由于暴露于低质量,超级加工的食物和饮料而驱动的。

In relation to diseases, there is another side to the food story too: changes to the environment and societies pose a disease threat to crops as well as people.百分之十据估计,主食作物产量会因病原体而丧失,而害虫和气候变化可能会在未来几年增加损失。

Last year, a strain of Fusarium wilt disease that has plagued banana plantations in parts of Asia for decadesspread to Latin America- 一个估计占全球香蕉货量的80%的地区。某些人被称为“香蕉卷”,该疾病尚无已知治愈方法。

在世界增长的人口增长以及面临粮食不安全感的人数增加的情况下,压力看起来将增长,以遏制农作物疾病23 per cent in 2014 to 26 per cent in 2018根据联合国食品和农业组织的说法。beplay下载官网西西软件

缓解前景

但是,如果可以采取正确的步骤,这可能并非全部厄运。随着世界争先恐后地寻找Covid-19的疫苗,人们对先前的疫苗成功有所反映。天花已被根除,cholera cases fell 60 per centin 2018 and wild polio cases have declined more than 99 per cent in the past 30 years — though some polio immunisation programmes face operational challenges andvaccine-derived polio正在上升。

Progress on universal healthcare has been fastest in lower-income countries, as改善质量和访问自2000年以来已导致减少儿童和垫子ernal deaths. However, the poorest countries still lag far behind and improvements have slowed in these countries since 2010.

越来越复杂的技术工具也有助于与世界面临的各种疾病作斗争。人工智能被用于监视镰刀菌栅格的人口图正在帮助识别有疾病爆发和传播风险的地区。

There is hope, too, that污染水平下降在锁定期间,将集中精力创造更健康,更可持续的环境。beplay足球体育的微博但是,是否有很多要考虑的世界是否要从Covid-19的教训中学习,并在下一个大流行时做得更好。