Why South Asia needs a non-nuclear future

写道Pervez Hoodbhoy。

通过增加人数，认为有风险nuclear活力is now no longer the eagerly sought panacea to the world’s活力problems. From its all-time high of 17 per cent in 1995, its share of world production dwindled to 10 per cent in 2013. The Fukushima nucleardisaster, even more than Chernobyl, has left Japan and most western countries deeply worried and suspicious. Japan’s 48 reactors remain shut, about 120,000 people are homeless, and the three reactors that experienced core meltdowns are still in deep crisis. They will need another 30—40 years to fully decommission.

Some developing countries are also losing their former enthusiasm. Post-Fukushima, Indonesia’s civil society insisted that the country's nuclear electricity programme be scaled back. Its demands were largely met. So, why has it been difficult for public opinion to compel any Pakistani or Indian government to similarly change course?

Opaque programmes

The reason is clear. Both countries used opaque civilian nuclear programmes to make nuclear weapons, which then became objects of national veneration and symbols of power. Shrouded in secrecy, nuclear establishments became a force in their own right. They were not subject to any significant scrutiny of safety aspects. Nor did they feel the need to reveal their plans for disaster management or prove their adequacy. While environmental impact mitigation schemes became legally necessary, these were not to be taken seriously. No attempts were made to educate populations near a reactor about radiation hazards.

A case in point is the recent decision by Pakistani authorities to install two Chinese-supplied 1,100 megawatt reactors near Karachi, next to a 40-year-old smaller Canadian-supplied reactor. Karachi is home to one out of ten Pakistanis. Chaotic even in normal times, evacuating the city in a nuclear emergency is impossible. Panic would cause Karachi to dissolve into mayhem, wholesale looting, and murder.

Pakistani authorities have taken an easy way out. They flatly state that no nuclear emergency can ever happen. This requires a leap of faith because the plants have not yet been fully designed, much less tested. Initially said to be of the ACP-1000 design, later news reports said the Hualong-1 design would be followed. One now hears that the ACC-1000 is being considered. Whatever these names might mean, the fact is that China has yet to build them on its own territory.

Security pleas in Pakistan

Although actual bomb-making moved off towards military reactors many years ago, like the famed Cheshire cat’s grin, tight secrecy persists around South Asia’s civilian reactors. When challenged in court by Karachi’s worried citizens, the authorities pleaded that national security was at stake. Therefore, they said, the public could not be engaged in the siting decision of the Chinese reactors. The mandatory environmental impact assessmentwas approved by unnamed but obviously handpicked persons。巴基斯坦原子能委员会（PAEC）负责新卡拉奇反应堆项目的官员告诉新闻界：“我们要求[信德省环境保护局不要因为国际政治而举行公开听证会。”beplay足球体育的微博Presumably, this means that nuclear cooperation with China overpowered all other considerations.

“Nuclear power in less open societies remains largely opaque and immune from public scrutiny”

Pervez Hoodbhoy, Pakistani physicist

A temporary court stay order has been effectively weakened and bypassed by the PAEC. Construction of the civil works is proceeding, and progress in constructing the reactors may be viewed on Google Maps.

India’s environmentalists

India’s story is similar. Environmentalists have had some success in mobilising anti-nuclear protesters, notably on issues of land acquisition. The Fukushima disaster energised anti-nuclear groups like the Konkan Bachao Samiti and the Gandhian group known as the National Alliance of People’s Movements. But, though Indian activists may have mustered a few thousand protesters on occasion — most notably at the Kudankulam and Jaitapur nuclear reactor sites — they have gained no significant victories. Nothing remotely similar to the UK-based Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament or the European Nuclear Disarmament has emerged in India. The Institute for Defence and Strategic Analyses, a conservative Indian think tank, has publishedthis statementusing dismissive language on its website: "An anti-nuclear movement in India would remain largely a marginal movement with sporadic spurts depending on the issue at hand, the site in question, and the political parties involved."

This seems correct. But it does not call for celebration.

However safe or unsafe nuclear energy in the West may actually be, it is constantly subjected to challenges from an aroused citizenry. But nuclear power in less open societies remains largely opaque and immune from public scrutiny. Under such conditions one can expect lower safety standards. It might take yet another Fukushima-like disaster to change this state of affairs.

Untested reactor designs are by no means the only reason to worry about nuclear power in South Asia where a safety culture is still embryonic. Pakistan, even more than India, should also worry about a terrorist attack against a reactor.Religious terrorists have carried out successful attacks在巴基斯坦许多高度保护的军事机构中，包括陆军总部，梅尔兰海军基地和卡姆拉空军基地。没有理由相信核反应堆将无力攻击。

Another worrying possibility, also officially dismissed, is operator error. But, at a nuclear power plant, there is simply no way for outsiders to know about internal practices. Indeed, the Chernobyl disaster was the result of imprudent actions on the part of reactor operators, and it underscored the vulnerability of nuclear plants to poor judgment. These problems could be exacerbated at a Chinese-designed, Pakistani-operated reactor because operators will lack the intimate knowledge of design and software issues than with an indigenous reactor.

Safer energy options

In spite of the enormous political clout of South Asia’s nuclear authorities and the hold they have in moulding public attitudes, in the long run the demise of nuclear fission power production globally is likely. A quiet revolution in manufacturing technology is leading to a massive surge in energy from both windmills and photovoltaics, and innovative storage mechanisms are being invented. The “levelised cost” (the total cost of installing a renewable-energy system divided by its expected energy output over its lifetime) of rooftop systems is now close to that of retail electricity prices in some countries.

有了大量的阳光和风，南亚才刚刚开始前往可再生能源。白天便宜，小型的分散太阳能和风能为城市和乡村家庭提供了最佳选择。这将大大减少对行业的气体，石油以及水力发电的压力，并释放能源。Instead of chasing outmoded and dangerous 20^th世纪技术，现在是印度和巴基斯坦追随世界更清洁，更安全的时候的21^stcentury.

Pervez Hoodbhoyholds a doctorate in nuclear physics and teaches in Lahore and Islamabad.

This article has been produced by SciDev.Net's South Asia desk.